CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Aug 26, 2008 14:56:44 GMT -6
CONCACAF Champions' League 2008-2009!!!
First matches are today! MLS teams are in two:
Joe Public - New England Revolution
Cruz Azul - Hankook Verdes
Tauro - Chivas USA
the other MLS teams involved, DCU and the Dynamo, will enter into the next round, group play
an MLS team hasn't been seen in the final of CONCACAF's top tourney for clubs since LA Galaxy won in 2000. How do you all think we'll fair this time around?
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Post by acdc on Aug 26, 2008 18:53:38 GMT -6
well new england and chivas are just qualifying to get into the group stage with DYnamo and all of them. I think we've come far as a league and our level of play is much better so we might go deep in the tourney. Granted we don't get knocked out by a mexican team. I''ve always supported the Dynamo in these tourneys so i guess I'll be rooting for them this time around.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Aug 26, 2008 23:07:56 GMT -6
ouch >.<''
JPFC 2-1 NE
TFC 2-0 CHV
day 1 and MLS apparently isn't making a good showing
and Cruz Azul apparently demolished Hankook
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Post by tankfantry on Aug 27, 2008 9:18:13 GMT -6
both teams lost are you kidding me? New England looked like crap against Joe Public although there striker (#17 I believe) was FAST as crap.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Aug 31, 2008 22:24:02 GMT -6
lol Am I slow on the uptake....
remember how we were discussing how funny if it would be in Charleston beat DCU in the Open Cup, putting a USL team in the 09-10 CCL? I just realized there are already two USL teams in the current 08-09 CCL.... Puerto Rico Islanders and Montreal Impact.... ^.^''
anyway, just thought I'd take a closer look at the prelims and see what 'our' teams would need to move on (without needing OT):
Revs: Win by 2 or more OR win 1-0
Islanders: Any win OR tie 0-0
Impact: Any win, any tie, OR any one-point loss besides 0-1
Chivas: Win by 3 or more sucks to be Chivas, apparently
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Sept 2, 2008 21:41:09 GMT -6
double ouch >.<''
NE 0-4 JPFC
CHV 1-1 TFC
at least Montreal got through.... 0-0 ties gives them 1-0 aggregate. Now they're in Joe Public's group.
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Post by tankfantry on Sept 3, 2008 8:29:49 GMT -6
I can't believe they both got knocked out already. New England did play a crappy game yesterday, it was a very sad display.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Sept 3, 2008 10:16:46 GMT -6
yeah, no kidding.... the first 15min were just a shooting gallery for Joe Public, and though NE got better over the course of the game, there was just a lot of bad luck for Reis. Just considering him, I think the loss was a fluke, though the team really didn't come together at all, so no fluke there.
I was really upset at the chances Chivas had, too.... there were two or three incredibly close chances before the first actual score that just didn't convert.
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Post by acdc on Sept 3, 2008 17:06:13 GMT -6
Hopefully Houston and DCU make a strong statement for the MLS.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Oct 1, 2008 22:00:52 GMT -6
....well, DCU certainly isn't....
Houston's doing OK, but ties won't get them out of group play.
It seems Montreal and the PRIs are the best teams from our system....
God, it's embarrassing for USL1 to be kicking MLS's keester around so much....
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Post by tankfantry on Oct 2, 2008 7:45:49 GMT -6
I blame it on the economy.
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Post by acdc on Oct 2, 2008 18:13:32 GMT -6
You should blame Don Garber.
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Post by tankfantry on Oct 3, 2008 7:36:40 GMT -6
what you didn't know Don was to blame for the economy, not Bush.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Oct 5, 2008 0:34:11 GMT -6
Okay, so I was a total geek: I wanted to know what scores could/should guarantee passage into the knockout round for four-team double-round-robin groups (since I know from the broadcasters at the '06 World Cup that in four-team single-round-robin group, 4pts is "maybe gets you through", 5pts is "does get you through").
Wanna know what I did? I went and looked back at results from the past four years of the Copa Libertadores and made an excel spreadsheet of the group results. Sad, huh? (What's even sadder is that I'll probably try to add the past four seasons of UEFA's Champion's League if I get time).
BUT - what I found out, based on those four years:
7pts will NOT get you through to the next round, although theoretically it can
8pts RARELY gets you through: ~30% chance
9pts MIGHT get you through: ~65%
10pts SHOULD get you through: ~84%
11pts DEFINITELY gets you through, unless something really weird happens: ~92%
My conclusion based on this?
1) DCU has a very very very slim chance of getting through to the next round - they have to win ALL THREE of their remaining games, though, since I think that any of the arrangements necessary for a 7pt team to go through have already all been eliminated in Group A
2) Houston should be fine as long as they get at least 7pts out of their next three games. In the groups where there were at least three ties, (as there are in group B already,) 9pts total always got you through to the next round, although there was one freak occasion where a team with 10pts was third place.... 8pts got teams through about half of the time.
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Post by acdc on Oct 5, 2008 12:09:40 GMT -6
hehe Great analysis. Not even ESPN has this sort of in depth analysis lol. Houston has 4 games left for a total of 12 points though. Not 3. They missed a game due to the Hurricane. So even then, your're saying they need 7 more pts? That means 2 wins and a draw and they can take a loss. That's pretty feasible. I agree DC is out and what a poor display...0 points.
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