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Post by acdc on Aug 18, 2008 21:18:44 GMT -6
that way we can beat...I mean play you guys in the playoffs. whoa you think Houston can beat the Fire?....Ahh lets not talk about the regular season...but in the Finals? Man that will be the best Final if it does happen.
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Post by tankfantry on Aug 19, 2008 7:07:40 GMT -6
that would, I mean an easy road to that third star would be fine with me....kidding..
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Post by acdc on Aug 19, 2008 12:03:01 GMT -6
no no tankfantry, the Fire is a professional soccer team not a high school team.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Aug 24, 2008 17:34:06 GMT -6
lol <back on topic> I looked back at the records for some of the recent seasons, and it definitely paints an interesting picture. It looks like, in the 32-game seasons, you needed at least 40 points to gain at least a wild card entry to the playoffs. Maybe since this is a 30-game season, we'll assume a team might need 37 points? Either way, with only nine games left, I don't think any teams in the Western Conference will get to that point (except the Dynamo and maybe RSL), so the wild card berths will both most likely go to East teams, and since there's a five-point deficit between the bottom two teams and the next two, along with a four-point difference between them and the Fire, I think the playoff berths in the East conference are already set. The 'playoff guarantee' slots in the West are much more interesting. There's only three points separating the #2 West team and the #6, so I think Houston will still top the conference, but the other two slots are still completely up for grabs.
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Post by acdc on Aug 25, 2008 16:36:04 GMT -6
great analysis. I agree with most of what you said. The wildcard spots will probably go to Eastern teams. I dont know why they just dont have one single table. Also the magic number to shoot for in my opinion is 40 pts. Thats what the fire needed to make it to the playoffs last year.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Aug 31, 2008 10:39:08 GMT -6
hmm... not much turnover in the standings yesterday... though the Crew got back into 1st place, NY leapt over a couple teams and into 4th, and SJ is no longer last. the Fire-Dynamo game will be interesting, though. If the Fire win, they'll double their lead over the Dynamo and get into 2nd place; if the Dynamo win (or tie), they'll increase their lead over the West and regain 4th from NY. I'm also finding myself really cheering for SJ now. They're on a great undefeated streak, and if they win their next match, they're really in contention for a playoff spot. Now, considering their next opponent is DCU, that's quite a tall order; I'll be cheering for them, still. =-) (as opposed to LA, whose winless streak is even longer than SJ's undefeated streak)
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Sept 21, 2008 18:42:46 GMT -6
Well, I'm shocked: LA finally won a game But anyway, with all of this week's games in, the playoff picture for Western Conference teams is even more complex. Just two points separate seventh place for third, the playoff slot. Add two more point, and you're in second place, and maybe even wildcard territory. Considering, though, that there are only five games left (six for SJ & HOU), and you can expect a team to average slightly more than one point per game, the 33 right now for a wildcard will probably be 39-ish by the end of the season, so ten points might be hard to make up.... It's possible, though =-)
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Post by acdc on Sept 22, 2008 10:34:36 GMT -6
it was about time they won.I love the end of the season, specially this season....its coming down to the wire. I think we can safely rule of Toronto, FC Dallas, LA. Im still not ruling out San Jose because their match was postponed with gives them 3 less possible points than the rest.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Sept 23, 2008 15:41:37 GMT -6
okay is anyone else annoyed that MLS is saying the Crew have clinched a playoff spot? Their reasoning is that, no matter even if they lose their next five games, they'll finish no worse than eighth. Which is true, but the problem is an 8th overall doesn't mean a playoff spot thanks to the conference system. In 2005 KC was tied for seventh based on points and in seventh period based on GD, but they didn't get b/c they were fifth in the east. Same story in 2004 with Dallas. Heck, if you even consider the standings as they currently are, KC's currently eighth overall but outside of the wildcard berths.
not to say that I doubt the Crew won't be in the playoffs - I expect they'll score at least five more points, which would put them at worst third in their conference. it's just the mathematician in me doesn't like MLS's math at the moment
though, admittedly, I haven't looked at exactly which matchups will be coming up, so that might factor in as well....
- - - - -
okay I looked at the matchups and it is possible for the Crew to not get in the playoffs: -Crew lose all five games of their next games, total 47pts and GD of 8, max -KC win all five of their next games, gets above the Crew on GD -DCU win all five of their next games, above Crew 48pts to 47 -NYRB win at least four of their next games, above Crew with at least 47pts (if only at 47, over by GD) -Fire wins three or four of their next games (can't win five since they lose to NYRB) -NE win two (lose other three to KC and DCU)
That^ would put those five teams above the Crew, putting them out of the playoff picture. Of course this is totally theoretical and highly unlikely, since the Crew just have to get one more point to top KC, three points to guarantee a wildcard berth. Also, the chances of any team winning five games in a row is even less likely. As I said before, I expect the Crew to be (solidly) in the playoffs. but, mathematically, they haven't 'clinched' a spot yet like MLS says they have.
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Post by acdc on Sept 23, 2008 21:09:07 GMT -6
Excellent analysis. I agree its a little out there that Columbus will miss the playoffs. But there's always a chance to things happening. From I Fire perspective....I hope they lose all their games but that just ain't happening. I agree though the MLS has to stop saying they clinched when mathematically, even if its just a small percentage, they havent.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Sept 24, 2008 8:17:24 GMT -6
lol Okay, I just got school'd over at bigsoccer.com ^.^'' if two teams are equal on points, then the first tiebreaker is head-to-head, not GD, so no matter what the Crew gets above KC. And there's no way for four teams from the West to still outscore the Crew, so yes they are in the playoffs.
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Post by acdc on Sept 24, 2008 9:34:32 GMT -6
well, its only natural to assume it will be based on GD since thats what most leagues do. But I did read the MLS fine print and it does say head-head indeed. They might be in the playoffs, but that supporter's shield is still out there. Crew, NE, Chicago, Houston all have a chance at winning the SS.....granted that CHI and HOU have a very very low chance at winning it but nonetheless its still a chance.
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CyMoahk
1st Team - Bench
[rs:Houston Dynamo, Celtic FC, Spain]
Posts: 172
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Post by CyMoahk on Oct 6, 2008 15:13:45 GMT -6
well, now I'm really conflicted.... 1) I want Houston to win the SS because, pointwise, there's still a chance they can (the Fire can't). 2) I want San Jose to make the playoffs, they had an amazing comeback and deserve it.
Unfortunately, I don't think I can get both, since both teams would need to maximize their points, and there's a HOU-SJ game coming up.... <sigh>
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Post by tankfantry on Oct 6, 2008 15:45:17 GMT -6
well, I am still going to go for Houston, but I don't think they will get the SS. I am looking at advancing in the CCL & hitting the 3-peat.
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Post by acdc on Oct 6, 2008 16:32:15 GMT -6
While there's a chance Houston could get SS, its basically slim to none. Columbus would have to lose all their games and Houston win all of theirs.....How did Columbus get away so fast
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